Hey,

Last week, Vincent Clerc — CEO of Maersk — told the BBC it plainly: the extra costs from the Hormuz crisis will be passed on to customers, and ultimately to consumers. His numbers: around $200 per standard 20-foot container, translating into a 15% to 20% increase in freight costs. As we covered last Sunday, roughly 90% of everything you buy moves by sea. Do the math.

But freight costs are just the beginning. What is unfolding in the Persian Gulf this week will reach European households, industries, and professionals through three distinct channels — each with its own timeline, its own mechanism, and its own level of severity. This post is about those three channels.